The New York Mets have been running away with NL East so far and are looking to finish off the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Or props from Sunday Night Baseball players play in Max Scherzer’s strikeouts and risk Starling Marte stealing a base.
Max Scherzer kicks the rubber tonight as the New York Mets attempt to secure a series win over the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. As such, we roll with the Mets in our Sunday Night Baseball player prop picks.
We expect Scherzer to top his overall strikeouts for a third straight start, and bet he’ll keep Rhys Hosking off base in the process. Finally, we risk Starling stealing a base from Marte at some point during today’s competition.
MLB props for Phillies vs Mets
The selection was made on 4/10/2022 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
The following odds widgets represent the best odds currently available for every betting market in regulated sports betting.
Click on each selection to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best Phillies vs. Mets prop bets
Don’t be mad, Max
While you won’t be able to get a Max Scherzer Strikeout prop for more cash for the rest of the season aside from some massive changes to his game, you can’t go wrong riding his Blitz.
Scherzer was his usual dominant self to begin his tenure in Queens. Decreased strikeout totals in his first two starts were likely the result of an easing of the season start after a shortened spring. He knocked out seven Phillies on April 13 but was limited to just five innings of work. In two starts since then, Scherzer has finished seven innings both times and had 10 strikeouts in each outing.
And while Philly isn’t the lineup most prone to strikes, that hardly matters to Mad Max. Scherzer tore up the St. Louis Cardinals in his last start, and that lineup has had fewer strikes this season than all but three other major league teams.
As long as Scherzer hits his usual length, he should eclipse 7.5 strikeouts tonight fairly easily.
Choose: Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-136)
Rhys is torn to pieces
The matchup is not in Rhys Hoskins’ favour. Yes, he usually gets hit in two holes this season, but he’s fighting mightily. He has a .197 batting average and has hit in 28.1% of his plate appearances in 22 games.
So now he’s up against a pitcher known for limiting hits and hitting opponents. Scherzer has 33 strikeouts in 25 innings (11.88 K/9) and has allowed just 11 hits. Hoskins has suffered particularly against equal-handed pitchers, hitting .172 against right-handers in the year.
Hoskins has great strength, but he’s never been an average batting guy. He didn’t factor in Philadelphia’s previous performance against Scherzer and the Mets when he went 0-1 as a pinch hitter, so there’s some risk of him getting the night off.
Choose: Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 hits (-105 at DraftKings)
It’s a Marte part-ay
The stolen base prop market is always risky. We live in a time when players aren’t stealing bags at nearly the same rate as in years past. However, when it hits, it carries a lot of value and is always in the plus.
Keyword Starling Marte. The outfielder led the majors with 47 stolen bases in 2021, including 25 in 56 games with the Oakland A’s after a midseason trade by the Marlins. Now he only has four under his belt to open the season, but it will still be a big part of his game. He has stolen at least 30 bases in seven of his last nine seasons, and one of those seasons where he finished with fewer than 30 was the 60-game Mutant campaign in 2020.
His .224 batting average is probably the main reason he didn’t use his jets early in the year, but some of that can be attributed to a remarkably low – for him – .246 BABIP.
Marte has only finished second in New York’s lineup this season, so he’ll get a good number of shots tonight, which may improve his running chances. Marte’s teammate Francisco Lindor is also intrigued and has +900 odds to go over 0.5 stolen bases tonight. He already has three this season and comes to the base much more often than Marte. Still, all those stolen bags came before April 20th.
Phillies catcher JT Realmuto has kicked out four of nine potential base stealers this season, and while he has a 35% career catch-stealing mark, he’s seen that number decline in 2020 and 2021.
Choose: Starling Marte Over 0.5 stolen bases (+525 at bet365)
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