Tiny Nick’s Gambling Tips: 8/10

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Castles

MLB (1 unit) Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 5 (-110): 6:05 p.m. CT on MASN2

You could take your Beer League softball team to Baltimore and probably just do a few runs with this Orioles pitching team right now. This is especially true when they send Keegan Akin back into a starting role after a brief exile in the bullpen, well deserved after he achieved a 12.22 ERA in his last 6 starts.

The opposing team easily equalized that total in these games, and Orioles opponents are 9-3 above that total in their last 12 games. Even if Akin is kept on a short leash, there is little help behind him as the Baltimore Bullpen has the third highest ERA in baseball this season, the highest last month and a monstrous ERA of 13.68 in the last 7 days.

That’s all bad news for them versus the Detroit Tigers, who were surprisingly the fourth-highest team in MLB last month. It’s a hot Baltimore night and the wind is blowing from Camden Yards, so here I see another pitching implosion by the Orioles and want to isolate their futility from the hill.

MLB (0.75 units) Tampa Bay Rays / Boston Red Sox over 9.5 (-110): 6:10 p.m. CT on NESN

I’m excited to be targeting yet another Tampa Bay Rays street here, especially with the pitching matchup for this game.

The Rays have the second best road-over percentage in baseball at 64.1%, the highest plus / minus of those totals, and are 7-3 above that number in their last 10 away games. They also tend to play high-goal games with the Boston Red Sox, 7-2 above that season total, including 3-0 at Fenway.

They should continue their high-scoring opportunities against Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez, who owns a 6.35 ERA at Fenway this season and a pitcher against whom the Rays line-up had excellent career results. The wheels have been loosening for the normally award-winning Boston Bullpen lately too, with big increases in ERA and xFIP in recent weeks.

Tampa Bay must score against this poor pitching to support its own starter gas can, Luis Patino, who has been terribly on the road this season with 7.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Both teams are capable of raking, so with bad pitchers in a small park I’ll be counting on another over from this series of the season.

MLB (1 unit) 2-team moneyline parlay (+120):

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-210) 8:45 p.m. on NBC Sports-BA

There’s still a significant undervaluation of the San Francisco Giants in the market, and I’m benefiting from that here. We’ve been seeing a lot of -300 moneylines lately, so it’s disrespectful to make the team with the best record in baseball a favorite against the worst record in baseball for as short a time as possible.

The futility of the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Giants should continue tonight even with Zac Gallen on the hill, who is now 0-3 against San Fran this season. Conversely, when Alex Wood started, the Giants beat Arizona 3-0 and won a total of 8 of their last 10 starts.

It should be easy for the Giants to break their season record to 13-2 tonight against the Snakes. But even with that disrespectful money line, the only thing to do with it is tying it into a parlay.

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners (-200): 9:10 p.m. CT on SportsNet NW

Once again for the people in the back – what are the Texas Rangers doing when Kolby Allard starts? They are losing; 1-11 in the season, including 0-2 against the Seattle Mariners, crushing him with an average of 0.386 and 1.173 OPS.

And what do the Mariners do when Logan Gilbert starts? You win; 11-3 in the season, including 2-0 against Rangers.

Gilbert is one of the most valuable betting pitchers in baseball this season, and it looks like the market is finally catching up with that broad moneyline. But that doesn’t matter for the purposes of this parlay because all we need is for these massive trends to continue, and since the Rangers now have the fewest street wins in baseball, I see no reason they wouldn’t.

Degenerate

No degeneration today.

Tiny Nick has ATS 354-246 (+92.4 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will be offering his locks and degenerate picks. Locks are the games he is sure of. Degenerate are fun but riskier picks.

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