Wednesday was far from ideal as the highest-owned stack had 13 runs on the main table. Of course, no one could say the Astros were bad games as a date at Camden Yards against a bad starter and an abysmal bullpen isn’t a bad thing. But given their massive holdings, it’s hard to say that they’re made for good tournament play in a very varied game like fantasy baseball. Hopefully the public has learned a lot of the wrong lessons and continues to stick with the chalkiest stack as what we’ve just witnessed isn’t the most profitable strategy in the long run. With that in mind, we find some MLB DFS picks and strategies that can get us to the top on today’s main board from DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Oh goodie, Chalk Astross again
There are eight games at stake tonight and, once again, there are two offenses that stand out from the rest. The Blue Jays draw the advantageous Orioles matchup this time around, resulting in a skewed implicit run total of 6.3, while the Astros are back in the game with an implicit run total of 6.1 against the Tigers. Just like a moth for a flame, the chalkiest stacks on any given MLB-DFS slate are always teams with the highest implied total runs, which makes sense as they are the most likely to get the most runs and, therefore, the most fantasy points.
What doesn’t make sense, however, is for every other team to be overshadowed by these two. And compared to the last few days there are some infinitely better striking conditions in the league tonight. There’s 85 degrees and 37% humidity in Minneapolis, 86 degrees with 10 to 15 mph winds blowing left in St. Louis, and even Los Angeles has an unusual humidity in the 50% range that makes Dodgers Stadium a little cheaper should for Schlager. Those are three decent spots to help steer clear of the focused Astros and Blue Jays bats so hopefully even one of them can beat expectations and win the day.
Make sure you hit refresh on the Top Stacks tool before locking as the sensitivity to owning these Astros slates has been a lot more important lately than you’d think just looking at the results . Identifying underrepresented teams and using their lineups accordingly is the name of the game in MLB DFS. So keep trusting the process and be mistaken too much about the understaffed stacks. And should the piles of chalk go off again tonight, so be it.
Latest MLB DFS content
The new MLB player prop tool
Those who attended the NBA DFS ride this season may have seen the references to the NBA Player Prop tool multiple times in shows and articles. Because of the links between DFS and Sports Betting, Awesemo is constantly using the information provided by Vegas and combining it with world-class forecasting to better inform decision-making. The tool helped identify the best bets on the board, see which players might be over- or undervalued for DFS purposes, and generated a huge ROI over the course of the 2020-21 season.
And now that tool has hit baseball streets as the new MLB player prop tool made its debut here at Awesemo. Strikeout and home run lines have always been extremely helpful in analysis, as both are crucial in identifying the most imaginative moves on a given board. And now players can see which players may be undervalued in the betting market according to Awesemo’s predictions, which calculates the expected win percentage and ROI for each particular bet.
Enjoy this article that relates to strikeout and home run props in the future as it can really get you on plays you would never expect. For example the Rockies Austin Gomber faced a strong Padres line-up at Coors Field two weeks ago. It did, however, have an auspicious 6.5 strikeout prop that was taller compared to other pitchers on the slate. Awesemo’s predictions confirmed that he wasn’t too far from projecting for that number, so he became a centerpiece of super-low ownership at DraftKings and FanDuel. While missing out on exceeding 6.5, he went on to score a massive fantasy score at his prize after eight shoutout innings.
So, be sure to familiarize yourself with the MLB Prop Tool in the coming weeks, especially in states with legalized betting. Being able to take advantage of market inefficiencies can help strengthen bankroll and use the Top Pitchers tool to point out players who may be overlooked.
Test our Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool
The Awesemo MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool helps you answer the tough questions when building your MLB DFS lineups. What are the highest projected stacks, what are the chances of being hit, and how does it compare to being owned? This premium tool breaks down the percentage chance a stack will be the top stack on the list, how the stack is owned, and what leverage you get when you use it.
Final thoughts on MLB DFS lineups
Take a look at this today MLB strategy show, with expert MLB DFS tips, strategy, fantasy baseball picks and predictions for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re live at 11 p.m. ET.
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